19 ianuarie 2012

Bucurestiul, mai vizitat decat Rio, Atena sau Milano. Yeah, right.

Nu ne-am grabit sa preluam stirea intr-adevar senzationala de acum cateva zile potrivit careia Bucurestiul a fost in 2010 pe locul 55 al celor mai vizitate orase din lume, devansand Rio de Janeiro, Atena, Mexico City sau Milano. Stirea a fost publicata de Mediafax si preluata in veselie si fara prea multe comentarii/verificari de Hotnews si restul (A3, Gandul, B1TV etc).

Pentru cine-ar fi cautat si rapoartele anterioare Euromonitor, ar fi descoperit ca in anii precedenti Bucurestiul a fost pe locuri chiar mai bune, pe locul 21 in 2009 si pe 34 in 2008. Adica in 2009 zice-se Bucurestiul a fost mai vizitat decat orase precum: Viena, Amsterdam, Moscova, Beijing, Tokio, San Francisco, Berlin sau Budapesta! Tot de aici reiese ca in 2009 Bucurestiul a fost orasul cu cea mai mare crestere de aflux turistic din lume (ma rog, din cele 100 de orase enumerate) destul de detasat, cu 5 procente fata de urmatorul clasat (Bali). Vezi: Euromonitor International’s top city destinations ranking (2009)

Poate la fel de interesant, consultand rapoartele ultimelor 2 ani in 2009 au fost 4.098.800 vizitatori, in 2010 au fost 2.136.000 vizitatori, adica in scadere cu aproape 50%. Cu toate astea, in 2010 suntem trecuti cu o crestere de 5.4%. Am trimis o intrebare pe tema asta catre Euromonitor, astept un raspuns.

Mai departe, pentru confirmarea cifrelor, am consultat (la sugestia Oanei) o autoritate mai aproape de sursa², cum poate orice cetatean, informatiile oferite de Institutul national de statistica¹. Care ce zic?

An	2008	2009	2010
INS	546.272	541.911	598.067
INS (B + IF)	1.465.891	1.275.590	1.346.343
Euromonitor	3.147.900	4.098.8	2.136.000

Cu alte cuvinte (daca ati ajuns sa cititi pana aici) consideram ca s-ar putea ca totusi Bucurestiul sa nu fie totusi o destinatie mai populara pentru turistii straini decat Rio, Atena sau Mexico City. Nici nu era nevoie de pipait statistici, o simpla plimbare in unul din orasele de 'sub Bucuresti' ar fi oricand suficienta pentru o concluzie de bun simt.

Inca un exemplu a jurnalismului heirupist tip copy/paste, cu ochii inchisi practicat cu desavarsire si de presa centrala.

Update: Intre timp am primit si un raspuns de la Euromonitor. In care se zice ca cifrele din 2009 au fost recalculate, ce ar putea explica diferenta procentuala 2009-2010.

This year some additional free of charge information (arrivals breakdown in public accommodation by cities) from national statistics became available. This let us notice that share of arrivals in private accommodation (friends, relatives) was strongly underestimated
The number was estimated this way:
Total= arrivals in public accommodation in Bucharest (from statistics) + arrivals in private accommodation like friends, family, etc. (estimated).
Arrivals in private accommodation in Bucharest estimated as % of overall arrivals staying in private accommodation in Romania. Benchmark split in % terms was taken from arrivals in public accommodation provided by statistics. It was lowered, because among people staying with family or friends more people comes to places closer to borders; also lower business arrivals share.
After receiving this information, the arrivals for 2009 were also counted again, according to received information.

___________
¹Conform Institutului National de Statistica, volumul de vizitatori straini in ultimii ani (2007-2010), a fost relativ constant atat pentru Romania (7.7-8.8M) cat si pentru Bucuresti (546k - 598k)
²Am cerut ulterior informatii oficiale si direct de la biroul de comunicare al Ministerului Turismului. Cum se intampla in relatia cu institutiile statului, am fost trimisi politicosi la alt ghiseu - tot la INS :)

Statistici Euromonitor International - vizitatori straini ai Bucurestiului (mii de vizitatori).

	2010			2009			2008			2006
City	#	Arrivals	%	#	Arrivals	%	#	Arrivals	%	#	Arrivals
Hong Kong	1	19973	18	10	7010.6	-3.8	9	7290.4	-1	5	8139
Singapore	2	18297	16	3	9682.7	-4.3	4	10115.6	-1.6	4	9502
London	3	14581	2.6	1	14059	-4.7	1	15033.2	-2	1	15640
Macau	4	13098	25.9	22	4035.4	-6.2	21	4457	12.8	27	3072
Bangkok	5	10984	10	2	9985.8	-2.2	3	10209.9	-5.8	2	10350
Antalya	6	10641	20	5	8867.7	3.5	7	8295.6	13.8	?	?
Kuala Lumpur	7	10351	10	4	9400	5.2	5	8935	4.2	15	4125
New York	8	8961	4.2	6	8479	-10.7	2	10786.1	23.1	6	6219
Paris	9	8176	5.5	8	7749.9	-6.9	6	8375	-4.4	3	9700
Istanbul	10	8124	7.7	9	7543.3	7	10	6682.7	3.5	16	3994
Dubai	11	7752	-0.4	7	7783	2.6	8	7584.5	13.4	7	6120
Mecca	12	6122	-12.4	11	6985	6.1	11	6586	0.4	19	3800
Miami	13	6003	5.6	13	5241.3	-9.4	12	6532.5	18.9	39	1972
Rome	14	5620	1.4	12	5543	-1.5	14	6245.5	2	8	6033
Shanghai	15	5397	22.9	18	4328.3	-2	15	5764.3	9.9	13	4315
Barcelona	16	5160	15.6	16	4464.7	-5.3	18	4906.3	-2.7	10	4695
Las Vegas	17	5130	0.8	14	4784.3	-14.9	17	4920.9	4.6	48	1647
Cairo	18	4998	3.5	17	4432.2	-11	24	4311.4	10.7	45	1720
Beijing	19	4901	18.8	27	3435.1	2.3	30	3357.2	-13	22	3593
Los Angeles	20	4550	1.1	15	4510.4	-8	16	5072.2	5.7	31	2513
Pattaya	21	4430	4	19	4259.4	-3.3	23	4406.3	0.4	?	?
Amsterdam	22	4021	9	23	3871	-14.5	20	4527	1.5	18	3901
Tokyo	23	3817	28	31	2982	-17.1	42	2642.6	9.1	51	1467
Prague	24	3758	2.5	24	3667.2	-9.1	25	4033.5	3.6	20	3702
Moscow	25	3740	1.4	25	3618	-12	22	4414.5	9	21	3695
Phuket	26	3612	7.5	29	3359.8	0.5	31	3344.7	5.8	?	?
Dublin	27	3587	-15	20	4220.3	-7	19	4538	2	11	4469
Vienna	29	3520	4.7	28	3361.8	-5.4	28	3552	4.2	23	3339
Madrid	30	3402	1.1	30	3211.5	-6.4	29	3423.5	0.6	17	3921
Kiev	31	3343	-5.4	26	3523.8	-4.8	27	3700	5.7	?	?
Orlando	32	3277	0.4	34	2878.1	-14.7	37	2929.6	3.2	38	1993
Taipei	33	3224	11.4	35	2808.5	-5.1	36	2939.3	-4.9	24	3280
San Francisco	35	2929	6.3	33	2938.5	-8.8	32	3301.6	14	37	1993
Edirne	36	2912	9.7	39	2654.4	6.6	45	2545.7	12.2	?	?
Toronto	37	2879	6.2	40	2634.8	-11.5	13	6406.2	-3.3	14	4160
Berlin	38	2872	2.6	36	2795.4	0.2	41	2747.1	7.5	34	2309
Seoul	39	2809	14.2	43	2460.5	5.1	49	2342	8.6	9	4920
Guangzhou	41	2687	16.2	50	2164.7	0.9	26	3715.4	9.4	32	2512
Sydney	42	2610	0.3	56	2040	-8.7	54	2235	-2.5	43	1852
Budapest	43	2606	-3.9	37	2712.6	-5.4	38	2868.9	-2.4	36	2043
Bali	44	2600	6.1	44	2450	19.8	58	2045.8	17.4	?	?
Sharm el Sheik	45	2558	10	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
Buenos Aires	46	2509	13.6	51	2122	-11.5	47	2399	2.5	?	?
St Petersburg	47	2500	7.8	46	2319	-2.8	48	2386	12.9	?	?
Warsaw	48	2450	5.6	48	2220	-16.7	59	1989	-10	29	2925
Ho Chi Minh	50	2435	28.4	62	1896.7	-3.8	61	1972	16	?	?
Delhi	52	2350	20	45	2374.4	1.5	53	2252.8	11.6	?	?
Brussels	53	2235	-1.6	47	2270.9	-5.9	46	2413.3	3.7	?	?
Mumbai	54	2195	10	53	2087.8	1.5	55	2141.9	6.1	86	672
Bucharest	55	2136	5.4	21	4098.8	24.1	34	3147.9	17.8	?	?
Mexico City	59	2028	3.8	42	2479.7	-13	43	2598.2	1.5	?	?
Jakarta	60	2000	6.4	64	1880	15.9	77	1622.3	26.4	?	?
Vancouver	61	1951	0	59	1928.7	-14.9	35	2978	-4.8	?	?
Rio de Janeiro	63	1929	7	38	2698.1	0.3	40	2820	7.3	35	2185
Lima	64	1925	5.1	67	1831.2	-13.1	?	?	?	?	?
Milan	65	1910	0.8	63	1894.2	-0.5	62	1954.2	2.1	42	1902
Seattle	66	1893	-0.3	66	1833.6	-10.8	52	2256	13.2	?	?
Lisbon	67	1881	4.7	70	1740.2	-7.5	65	1872.1	6.5	47	1715
Sao Paulo	69	1825	4.5	69	1745.9	2.7	72	1704	30.4	62	1095
Chiang Mai	73	1769	5	73	1684.9	5	78	1604.6	1.3	?	?
Athens	77	1733	-7	65	1842.3	-11	50	2310	5.8	?	?
Venice	78	1695	1.7	76	1666.3	-3.8	68	1832.2	1.9	28	2927
Florence	79	1690	0.3	72	1685	-1.3	69	1767	2.2	46	1715
Burgas	84	1535	-1.8	79	1563.2	-8.3	71	1704.6	16	?	?
Varna	86	1501	-0.2	81	1504.2	-7.9	75	1633.6	15	?	?
Manila	100	1250	25.6	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?

Euromonitor International’s Top 100 City Destinations Ranking (2010)
Euromonitor International’s top city destinations ranking (2009)
Euromonitor International's Top City Destination Ranking (2008)
Top 150 City Destinations: London Leads the Way (2006)

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